Prediction Market Settlement: Event End, Trading Close, Resolution

Kalshi: a trading close is not a result

Kalshi distinguishes the displayed close time from determination time. Trading can end before or after the event for operational reasons, while settlement awaits official source confirmation. A closed market therefore answers a trading-status question; it does not by itself establish that the result has been determined. [1]

Kalshi says it relies on source agencies to publish finalized results. Delayed or revised data can affect the wait, depending on the market rules. The useful check is the named source and its finalized result, rather than assuming that the apparent end of the event settles the market immediately. [1]

Polymarket: read the proposal and challenge stage

The Polymarket help center describes resolution through the UMA Optimistic Oracle, a smart-contract-based optimistic oracle, under each market’s predefined rules shown beneath the order book. It describes a 2-hour challenge period after a proposed resolution, during which the outcome can be disputed. [2]

That duration identifies one stage triggered by a proposal. It is not a stated end-to-end settlement time, and an event ending is not the same trigger as a resolution being proposed. Keep the proposal and challenge stage distinct when reading this documented workflow. [2]

Compare checkpoints, not promised waiting times

These descriptions emphasize different checkpoints: Kalshi’s source confirmation and Polymarket’s rules, proposal and challenge process. Neither should be substituted for the other. Read the specific market’s determination rules, identify the relevant source or mechanism, and distinguish trading status from resolution status before drawing conclusions about settlement. [1] [2]